Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AVAX prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-02-01 0.003020 0.003321 0.003643 0.004011 0.004422 0.004868 0.005389
2026-02-08 0.002482 0.002899 0.003374 0.003960 0.004663 0.005486 0.006527
2026-02-15 0.002145 0.002607 0.003160 0.003873 0.004776 0.005888 0.007377
2026-02-22 0.001947 0.002445 0.003063 0.003892 0.004986 0.006397 0.008376
2026-03-01 0.001829 0.002363 0.003047 0.003997 0.005300 0.007048 0.009610
2026-03-08 0.001669 0.002207 0.002915 0.003929 0.005364 0.007357 0.010392
2026-03-15 0.001531 0.002067 0.002790 0.003852 0.005402 0.007620 0.011118
2026-03-22 0.001429 0.001967 0.002709 0.003828 0.005504 0.007977 0.012007
2026-03-29 0.001360 0.001907 0.002679 0.003870 0.005703 0.008486 0.013175
2026-04-05 0.001270 0.001810 0.002587 0.003810 0.005737 0.008742 0.013955
2026-04-12 0.001195 0.001730 0.002513 0.003770 0.005797 0.009037 0.014821
2026-04-19 0.001124 0.001651 0.002434 0.003717 0.005828 0.009283 0.015622
2026-04-26 0.001072 0.001598 0.002396 0.003730 0.005978 0.009755 0.016900
2026-05-03 0.001009 0.001526 0.002323 0.003683 0.006025 0.010059 0.017916
2026-05-10 0.000944 0.001448 0.002236 0.003603 0.006007 0.010245 0.018727
2026-05-17 0.000906 0.001408 0.002208 0.003620 0.006159 0.010746 0.020198
2026-05-24 0.000886 0.001397 0.002225 0.003717 0.006460 0.011545 0.022359
2026-05-31 0.000838 0.001337 0.002155 0.003654 0.006461 0.011778 0.023377
2026-06-07 0.000792 0.001277 0.002084 0.003584 0.006442 0.011967 0.024319
2026-06-14 0.000758 0.001236 0.002041 0.003561 0.006512 0.012335 0.025695
2026-06-21 0.000736 0.001215 0.002032 0.003600 0.006703 0.012967 0.027740
2026-06-28 0.000701 0.001168 0.001975 0.003545 0.006702 0.013198 0.028884
2026-07-05 0.000671 0.001129 0.001930 0.003508 0.006735 0.013504 0.030241